In a fragile economy, forecasts can quickly fade. A few weeks ago, the President Alberto Fernandez He noted, “Only China surpasses us in terms of economic growth.” However, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) today released its growth projections for the G20 countries. And, in this table, Argentina is down 0.4 points from the previous forecast for this year, made last November: from 0.5% to 0.1%. While the government forecast in the national budget, before the drought, a growth of 2% for 2023, the consultants forecast a recession which could reach -3%. The Organization released its report, titled “A Fragile Recovery”, which indicates that Argentina grew by 5.2% in 2022. In 2024, the country would grow by 1.8%, hit by a high inflation, budget deficit and lack of funding.
For this year, Argentina’s projection is the one with the weakest growth within the G20 and exceeds only two estimates of recession: Great Britain and Russia.
On the other hand, for the OECD, China will progress this year by 5.3%, or 0.7 points more than in the previous forecast.
In short, the G20 will grow by 2.6% this year, or 0.4 points more than in previous figures, while the world presents the same figures in both cases, according to the OECD.
In 2024, the world and the G20 would grow by 2.9%, China by 4.9% and Argentina by 1.8%.
Within the region, Brazil grew 3% in 2022 and is expected to grow 1% this year (it lowered its projection by 0.2%) and 1.1% in 2024, while Mexico rebounded 3 % last year and would reach 1.8% this year (0.2% more) and 2.1% next year.
The United States showed an increase of 2.1% in 2022 and would reach 1.5% this year (1 point more than in November) and 0.9% in 2024.
India, which grew 6.9% in 2022, would grow 5.9% this year (0.2 more than before) and 7.1% in 2024. The numbers for Indonesia are: 5.3%; 4.7% and 5.1%.
In the euro zone -which grew by 3.5% in 2022, would reach 0.8% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024-, Germany rebounded by 1.9% in 2022, would grow by 0.3 % in 2023 (0.6 points more than expected four months ago) and 1.7% in 2024. The data for France are: 2.6%; 0.7% (0.1) and 1.3%.
In Italy the increase in 2022 was 3.8%, this year it would reach 0.6% (0.4) and 1% next year; in Spain: 5.5%; 1.7% (0.4%) and 1.7%. Finally, Britain grew by 4% and would suffer a recession of -0.2% (0.2 more than before) and would grow by 0.9% in 2024.
Japan grew by 1% last year and is expected to grow by 1.4% this year (-0.4 than before) and 1.1% in 2024, while South Korea recorded these data: 2.6%; 1.6% (-0.2%) and 2.3%. Meanwhile, Turkey rebounded, grew 5.6% in 2022 and would rebound 2.8% this year (-0.2) and 3.8% in 2024.
The year it invaded Ukraine, Russia fell -2.1% and this year it would fall -2.5% (3.1) and another -0.5% in 2024.
For its part, Saudi Arabia grew by 8.7% in 2022 and would add 2.6% this year (-2.4) and 3.7% next, while South Africa reached 2%. last year, it should rebound by 0.6% this year (-0.5) and by 0.9% in 2024.
According to the OECD, “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to overshadow the global economy. Despite recent signs of improvement, the recovery over the next two years is expected to be moderate.
In his report, he states that “the outlook remains fragile and downside risks prevail. The strong uncertainty generated by the war could weigh heavily on activity”.
“Trade tensions are high and could worsen. Concerns about financial vulnerabilities have increased, including in financial institutions, housing markets and low-income countries,” he explained.
“Although headline inflation has started to decline, it remains high and could last longer,” he said, as central banks will have to oscillate between raising interest rates needed to lower prices while avoiding another great recession in the world. It is a very difficult balance, which in Argentina, with inflation projected again close to 100%, seems even more complex.