:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/JBO2GTJI753JAUUHA7JWKG3ICU.jpg "The interest rate in Colombia would remain high and end 2023 at 11%")
The Foundation for Higher Education and Development (Fedesarrollo) and the Colombian scholarship (BVC) announced the results of the Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) February, during which the expectations of analysts and portfolio managers on the most relevant macroeconomic and financial variables were known.
A Banco de la República survey estimates that inflation in 2023 will be almost 9%
Expectations in the benchmark rates, once again, have been changed, although the experts consulted assure that the increases would decrease, in February the forecasts have again been rectified
According to him, analysts expect that interest rate stands at 12.75% in February 2023, given that the next economic policy decision of the Bank of the Republic it’s in March. Additionally, they specify that the rate will rise to 13.25% in May 2023 and close this year at 11.0% for December.
In front of the EOF of January, there are some differences with analysts’ expectations. On that occasion, they replied that they expected the interest rate to be at 13% in April 2023 and will end 2023 in 10.50% for Decembera figure higher than that stipulated in December 2022, when it was expected to be 9%.
Dollar ran in Next Day mode and closed at $4,914 after falling slightly
The past week (February 13-17) was marked by an uptrend and the US currency was 4 pesos below $5,000
Regarding the growth forecast for 2022, it is in a range between 7.8% and 8.3%, with 8.0% as the median response, distancing itself by 0.5 percentage points (pps) from the data observed in the Economy Tracking Index (ISE) revealed by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Danish) by 7.5%. The median forecast for 2023 was 1.1%, with a range between 0.8% and 2.0%.
“The median growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 was 4.0%, ranging from 3.6% to 5.3%. For the first quarter of 2023, analysts estimate growth of 2.2%”, specified the EOF of Fedesarrollo and the BVC.
Compared to the January EOF, there are also differences. For example, growth forecasts for 2022 It was in a range that month between 7.8% and 8.1%, with 8.0% as the median response, the same figure expected in December 2022. The median forecast for 2023 was 1, 5%, ranging between 1.0 and 2.0% and above the median of 1.3% of the last edition.
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In January, the average economic growth forecast for fourth quarter 2022 stood at 4.3%, in a range between 3.6% and 5.0%. In December 2022, it was 4.0%. For the first quarter of 2023, analysts have estimated growth of 2.5%.
The expectations of inflation for February 2023 they were 13.25% and for December 2023 9.0%.
If compared with the January EOF, there are some differences, as the inflation expectations for December 2023 stood at 8.89%, in a range between 8.50% and 9.96%, testifying a 1.25 percentage point increase in expectations compared to the previous month (7.64%), so that inflation expectations remain outside the target range of the Bank of the Republic (2.0% – 4.0%).
As for dollaranalysts expect Market representative rate (TRM) sits between $4,693 and $4,790 for February, with $4,730 as the median answer. Similarly, they forecast an MRR of $4,778 in May 2023 and $4,750 in December of the same year.
According to Fedesarrollo’s EOF and the BVC, the socio-political conditions They emerged as the most important factor when investing for analysts with 44.4% of responses. The categories of monetary policy, economic growth and other factors they followed with 18.5%, 11.1% and 11.1% of responses, respectively.
Compared to January, there were some similarities. Analysts this month were forecasting a TRM of $4,800 until April of 2023 and $4,750 in December of the same year, which is $50 more than expected in December 2022 ($4,750).