Tax collection has risen below inflation for the second consecutive time in the past 27 months

For the third consecutive month, the fiscal resources communicated by AFIP through its three main sources, DGI, Customs and Anses, exceeded 2,100 billion dollars in February -that is a total of 2,130 billion dollars-, and this despite the fact that they represented an increase of 82.3% compared to the amount of the previous year, was for the second time in the last 27 months below the rate of inflation, which during of the month in which most of the tax base was generated was 98.8%.

According to the analysis of the AFIP technicians: “In disaggregated terms, most taxes presented interannual variations above the average: VAT (106.1%), Social Security (103.2%), Credits and Debts of the account. Cte. (101.1%), PAIS tax (95.1%), personal assets (94.5%) and profits (91.4%). For their part, below the average were import duties and the statistical rate (47.9%), total fuels (37.5%) and export duties (down 55.9 %)”.

Excluding customs resources, collection in February would have increased by 109% compared to the same month of 2022

And he adds: “Excluding customs resources, February’s collection would have increased by 109% compared to the same month in 2022. The taxes excluded to make this correction include, in addition to export and import duties and statistics taxes, the customs component of the VAT and the profits levied on imports”.

Although the intensification of the control task by AFIP inspectors in Customs, companies and in the examination of declarations submitted to the VAT, Profits, Heritage and ANSES bodies, mainly contributed to the maintenance of a remarkable performance in terms of nominal growth of fiscal resources, could not prevent them from falling again in real terms compared to the previous year.

INDEC data on the aggregate of the real economy (EMAE), as well as on partial industrial activity and sales in commerce (supermarkets, wholesalers and self-service), anticipated the loss of vitality of resources tax in view of the significant growth in the values ​​it had recorded since the end of the health crisis, in the first months of 2021; clearly explained by the effects of the widespread drought, the early liquidation of the oilseed complex exports in the last months of 2022 and the limitations in the supply of imported inputs to support the production rate of various manufactured products.

Thus, the real fall in the aggregate of fiscal resources was more intense in February than that recorded by the EMAE (8.3% against around 2.0%).

At the end of the first two-month period, fiscal resources totaled $4.39 trillion, up 87.8%, well below the inflation rate for the period, which averaged 96.8% .

In line with the decrease in tax collection in real values, the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf) chaired by Nadin Argañaraz reported that “In February 2023, the national government sent to the consolidated provinces plus CABA 719,126 million dollars for joint participation, complementary laws and compensation, compared to 366,541 million dollars sent during the same period of the previous year. In other words, a nominal variation of 96.2% was observed. Given the inflationary process of the period, this would translate into a real decline of 2.5%. This decrease is mainly explained by the real decrease in the collection of profits of around 5% over one year”.

And he adds that “In February 2023, for complementary laws and compensations, the national government sent to the consolidated provinces plus CABA 72,186 million dollars, compared to 43,282 million dollars sent during the same period of the year former. That is, a nominal variation of 66.8% was observed. If we exclude the inflationary process of the period, this would translate into a real decline of 17.2%”.

Of the total resources in February, those intended for the Central Administration increased by 61.8%; to the Provinces 98.2%; and Social security contributions 103.2 per cent.

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