RBC: Business expectations picked up in February

He Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCR) reported that all indicators of business expectations and from the current situation, except for the level of production, they recovered in February 2023 compared to the previous month.

According to Monthly survey on macroeconomic expectations, six indicators of business expectations, out of a total of 18, are in the optimistic range.

They are: Economy over 12 months (52 points), anticipation of your sector over 12 months (55 points), situation of your company over 12 months (59 points), demand for products over 12 months (60 points), hiring of staff at 12 months (54 points) and your company’s investment at 12 months (55 points).

In this sense, according to the table prepared by the issuing entity, the three-month wait for the economy he went from 32 to 42 points, with which he is still in a negative section. Regarding the 12 months, it was positive, going from 47 to 52.

Similarly, pending in its three-month sector, it went from 40 to 44 points. At the same time, the 12-month expectation of its sector fell from 51 to 55 points. In the situation of your businessthe three-month wait went from 45 to 48 and the 12-month wait from 55 to 59, which is in positive territory.

As it concerns product requestthere business expectation at three months, it went from 45 to 49, but it remains in negative territory, unlike the 12-month rate which went from 56 to 60 points.

On the recruitment of staff for three months, although it is still negative, it has fallen from 43 to 45 points, while the expectation at 12 months is already in positive territory with 54.

Finally, regarding the investment of your businessthe three-month expectation continues to decline to 46, while the 12-month expectation appears this month with good optimism at 55 points.

In view of these results, Alberto Arregui, investment specialistexplained that in last February’s survey of RBC business expectations There has been a recovery, not only from the previous months, but it is even now in the optimism field, which would indicate that towards the end of the year there could be an increase in the private investment.

“Perhaps the perception that the intensity of the political crisis caved in a bit because fewer images of violent protests were seen. In these surveys there is a bias in Lima because the vast majority of companies are in the capital, this can clearly influence the economic expectationssays Arregui.

Furthermore, the expert underlined that on the side of market indicators there is already a series of good signs, on the economic level, the country is recovering; however, some indices still suggest that private investment could decline this year.

“Last week we saw the price of Peruvian assets go up, the stock market went up and we saw the exchange rate lower, that is, the currency appreciated while the opposite was happening in other countries in the region such as Chile, Colombia and Mexico. Country risk remained relatively stable in a week, where the rest of the region saw relative increases, little, but there were increases in country risk,” Arregui commented.

Finally, the investment specialist argued that the market indicators are important for investors, because with them you can get an idea of ​​how guide your investments. “Many of them are purely economic and others are indicators derived from the same market, when both point in the same direction it is worth paying attention to, it does not mean that they will always be aligned”, he pointed out.