It is time for the ProFarmerTour in the corn and soybean belt in the United States, the tour that the crop-scouts carry out every year in the main producing states to count ears, measure size and number of grains per row in the case of corn and for counting the number of pods per plant in the case of soybeans. This is a field estimate prior to harvest that many operators take into consideration as a factor with a potential impact on prices.

Preliminary assessments in the states of Iowa and Illinois, which account for 32% of total corn production and 29% of total soybean production, yield disparate results, but in general terms they are estimating a probable corn yield lower than of the previous campaign and in the case of soybeans, very similar. In terms of the impact on the market, we can summarize that, if this yield trend continues at the end of the crop tour, it could be bullish for corn and neutral to slightly bearish for soybeans.

In the case of corn, the crops have already passed the flowering/pollination stage and 80% are in a pasty state, with the earliest ones at the beginning of maturity. Good to excellent crop status stands at 55% of the total planted, down from 60% at the same time in 2021. And this is the data that prompted the USDA to lower its US corn production estimate in its latest report. From August 12 to date there have been no important rains that could improve the condition of the crops.

An official report warns that there is up to an 80% probability that La Niña will continue

For now, the value of corn in Chicago rose US$25 per ton between the 16th and the 25th of the current month and the funds that were purchased increased that position. In the first two weeks of August, the funds bought 3.15 million tons, betting heavily on an additional rise in prices. Will the funds be right? So far the market has been responding to the position of the funds.

At the local level, the corn market maintains a reasonable supply volume. In the weekly report to August 10, producers sold 870,000 tons and in the subsequent report, sales fell to 500,000 tons. In any case, it is still a very good volume of supply, 1.37 million tons in just two weeks. And the market showed an improvement of US$5 per ton in the available, now at a floor of US$230 over Rosario, while over Bahía Blanca the premium drives the available to US$260 per ton.

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