Warsaw, May 15, 2025 – Poland’s economy maintained robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 3.2% year-on-year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS). This figure slightly surpassed market expectations of 3.1% but marked a modest slowdown from the revised 3.4% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The steady expansion reflects Poland’s resilience amid global economic uncertainties, including trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 0.7%, exceeding forecasts of 0.1%, signaling continued momentum despite challenges such as two fewer working days in the quarter.
Key Drivers of Growth
The services sector remained a cornerstone of Poland’s economic performance, with strong contributions from retail, hospitality, and technology-driven industries. Domestic consumption also played a pivotal role, bolstered by steady household spending and rising real wages, which have been supported by a tight labor market and government-backed social programs. Business investment showed signs of recovery, growing by 4.1% year-on-year, driven by increased activity in manufacturing and construction.
Exports, a critical component of Poland’s economy, rebounded modestly with a 2.8% increase, recovering from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. However, import growth outpaced exports at 3.5%, reflecting strong domestic demand but slightly narrowing the trade surplus.
Challenges and Outlook
Despite the positive figures, analysts caution that Poland’s economy faces headwinds. Global trade uncertainties, particularly due to U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump, could dampen export growth in the coming quarters. Additionally, inflationary pressures persist, with Poland’s inflation rate reaching 4.9% in March 2025, though real GDP growth remains positive when adjusted for inflation.
“The 3.2% growth rate demonstrates Poland’s economic strength, but we expect a potential slowdown in Q2 as global demand weakens and trade barriers rise,” said Anna Kowalska, chief economist at PKO Bank Polski. “Still, domestic consumption and investment will likely keep the economy on a solid footing through 2025.”
The World Bank has projected Poland’s GDP growth to reach 3.7% for the full year of 2025, an upward revision from earlier estimates, citing the country’s diversified economy and strong domestic demand as key factors. This optimism is tempered by concerns over energy costs and supply chain disruptions, particularly in light of Poland’s reliance on regional trade partners.
Regional Context
Poland’s 3.2% growth places it among the stronger performers in the European Union, outpacing the eurozone’s revised 0.3% growth for Q1 2025. Compared to other G7 and regional economies, Poland’s performance is notable, with the UK leading at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth, while the U.S. experienced a 0.3% contraction due to a surge in pre-tariff imports.
Looking Ahead
As Poland approaches its presidential election, economic stability remains a key talking point. The government is expected to continue policies aimed at supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, which have been vital to sustaining growth. Meanwhile, the central bank is likely to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing inflation control with growth support.
Poland’s Q1 2025 GDP figures underscore its position as a resilient economy in a challenging global landscape. While risks remain, the country’s diversified economic base and strong domestic demand provide a solid foundation for continued growth in 2025.
Sources: Central Statistical Office of Poland, Investing.com, MarketScreener, PKO Bank Polski, World Bank