The drought will represent a heavy loss for the country this year

Another private report highlighted the high negative impact that drought in the national economy. A report made by the Agricultural Engineer, villa louis, said that this year, the agricultural sector will represent less than 4.5% of GDP, estimated at 4.35%. It should be remembered that in 2022 the participation was 7%.

“There is no similar value in the World Bank data series, which starts in 1965,” Villa said in his report, adding that, for example, in the years 2000 and 2001 they were respectively 4.7% and 4.6%. “The joint negative impact of the drought, some late frosts in the spring of 2022 and the early frost on February 18 of this year It is of considerable magnitude for the agricultural and animal production of the country», specifies the Agricultural Engineer.

It indicates that due to the effects of the drought on the various agricultural activities, the decline in gross agricultural product will be approximately $11,750 million, falling to approximately $23,000 million from the previous $34,750 million. . In addition, the decrease in projected billing will be around 24,500 million dollars, compared to the good previous campaign. On the other hand, the drop in what is actually exported will surely be $18.5 billion or more.

Livestock is another of the activities affected by the drought
Livestock is another of the activities affected by the drought

To all this it is projected that the decapitalization of the agricultural sector could reach 3,000 million USD, which adds some 9,250 million dollars between the expected result and the one that will end up being obtained this year. “In total, perhaps contrary to the general view, the multiplier effect could be 40%. Carefully managing 30%, rounding up the sum at the head of all the producers to 12,000 million dollars, the new value of the damage generated by the drought (all is not effective) is 12,000 plus 4,300 (decrease for the Treasury) + 3,600 (multiplier effect), equals $19.9 billion,” the report noted.

With all that, A final estimate has been reached which contemplates cash and equity costs in the range of USD 24,500 million, of which USD 19.9 billion are those that will be felt during the 2023/2024 cycle. In addition, it has been clarified that, in order to simplify the account, the increase in collection resulting from the activity of the so-called multiplier effect has been omitted. “In summary, the immediate cost to the entire private sector is $15.6 billion according to these estimates ($19.9 billion less the corresponding amount to the Treasury). This cost represents 2.95% of the Proceeds,” Villa added.

Finally, “considering all costs and delays, the $24.9 billion represents the equivalent of 4.7% of the previous year’s Proceeds. A very important figure which will force both the State and the private sector to completely rethink the national productive scheme. Failure to do so will imply an even greater deterioration of our economic and social variables. It must be remembered that our system does not adapt to higher debt in the face of an unfavorable year, it does so due to greater concentration, leaving producers behind, an issue that requires careful analysis. »

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