In the current trajectory of the electoral reform promoted by the President Andres Manuel Lopez Obradorthe June 2, 2024 federal election “could be less than free and far from fair,” the magazine notes. Atlantic.

For the magazine founded by writers, if Lopez Obrador manages to intervene in the next elections in favor of Morena, will do more harm to the legitimacy of the Mexican government and will open up even more space for drug cartels to assert their power in Mexico.

In its publication of this Tuesday, February 21, Atlantic analyzes that AMLO’s political project consists in exploiting the grievances and social discontent to consolidate personal power, a leadership that has become common in the modern world.

In the case of United States, Donald Trump He put the democratic system in great danger by refusing to leave power, but institutions and laws managed to resist, said David Frum, author of the article “The Autocrat Next Doorwho said that in the case of Mexico “the autocrat prevails until now” and that in the near future the final winner could be the autocracy.

Al Like Trump in the United States, López Obrador finally came to power thanks to a broader crisis of the political system. In Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto he lost his connection with voters and his image came to personify the divide between Mexico’s social and economic elites and the underclass.

AMLO transferred civilian functions to the military.  Photo: Darkroom
AMLO transferred civilian functions to the military. Photo: Darkroom

Rejection of the corrupt system has spread throughout Mexican society and electoral support for traditional political parties has collapsed, a situation that has been read well by Lopez Obrador and his feast, Morenawhich presented itself as the only alternative political force.

In July 2018, Lopez Obrador He won the most resounding political victory in Mexico’s modern democratic history and led his party to a majority in Congress.

So a man who, unconcerned with institutional checks and balances, wanted to base his power on the “will of the people” finally got his wish, after a 12-year campaign.

In 2022, Lopez Obrador He attempted constitutional reform to change the electoral system, but when he failed to do so, he quickly took another course and with it “Plan B” emerged, with the intention of cutting the budget of INE and also to reduce its presence in the entities.

David Frum explained that if you disable the INEresponsibility for its operation will likely fall to local governments, most of them controlled by Morenaparty that governs more than 20 states of the Republic.

Morena's coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies promotes AMLO's Electoral Plan B (Photo: Twitter/@NachoMierV)
Morena’s coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies promotes AMLO’s Electoral Plan B (Photo: Twitter/@NachoMierV)

For the prestigious magazine, the apparent paradox of all this effort to Lopez Obrador influence the 2024 process is that one of the taboos of Mexican politics to prohibit the re-election of a president remains.

“Why try to manipulate elections in which he himself cannot be a candidate?” asks Frum, who then explains that there is a logic of power in this plan, in which López Obrador wants to ensure his succession to someone ‘one of totally faithful and obviously. , that person would be Claudia Sheinbaumwho has already declared that if he reaches the National Palace, he will try to carry out the constitutional reforms AMLO could not, as electric.

Lopez Obrador you probably have the clout to impose your preferred option on your party, remembering that Morena already determined the poll as the method of selection, the same that gave the candidacy to Sheinbaum in 2018 in the CDMX.

But imposing this option on the country is a greater challenge, where the INE is an obstacle for the president, believes the author of the article.

At the same time, López Obrador is developing another tool of power, “perhaps the most sinister of all: a politicized army”, establishes Frum.

AMLO granted the military the operation of airports and now an airline.  (PHOTO: MARIO JASSO/ARCHIVES/CUARTOSCURO)
AMLO granted the military the operation of airports and now an airline. (PHOTO: MARIO JASSO/ARCHIVES/CUARTOSCURO)

Under the chairmanship of Lopez Obrador, moved many formerly civilian functions to military control, creating new opportunities for Armed forces create economic wealth.

One of the most significant examples is that Lopez Obrador he transferred control of Mexican customs collection from civilian agencies to the military, justifying that corruption was flooding officials. Now it is the armed forces that will be exposed to temptation, the publication says.

supporters of Lopez Obrador they sometimes attribute their enthusiasm for military control to a naïve faith in the integrity and competence of the armed forces, but Frum notes that naïve people rarely rise to the top of Mexican politics.

Basically, the concessions of Lopez Obrador in the army are not based on naivety and seem to obey more a president who is trying to build a power base of military commanders who owe him their fortunes, and from whom he may have secrets.

AMLo has promoted reform to expand the powers of the army and navy (Picture: Cuartoscuro)
AMLo has promoted reform to expand the powers of the army and navy (Picture: Cuartoscuro)

The true story of the so-called Fourth Transformation “there is great promise, little achievement,” reads the Feb. 21 text.

In the analysis, Atlantic estimate that Lopez Obrador in just one thing can be considered truly transformative: en his aspiration to remove multi-party democracy from Mexico and bring the country back to authoritarian past.

In the months to come, Mexican democracy will face severe tests, and if Mexico manages to overcome them, it can make progress. Otherwise, the country risks descending into authoritarianism, while the anarchy of organized crime risks worsening.

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