Israel Votes in Unpredictable Fourth Election in Less Than Two Years

More than 6.5 million israelis They are called to vote this Tuesday in a fourth election to end the political blockade and amid certain euphoria over the rapid vaccination and economic reopening with which the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, he hopes to get re-elected.

However, the estimated high number of undecided does not allow a majority bloc to emerge in a traditionally fragmented parliament, which depends on complex coalitions to create a government, more based on a pro or anti axis. Netanyahu than in the customary ideological confrontation of right versus center-left.

Almost 40 political parties attend these elections, although around a dozen will enter Parliament (Knesset). Three of them are in doubt: the centrist Blue and White, by Beny Gantz; the Islamist Raaam, from Mansour Abás, and the leftist Meretz.

A total of twelve seats – four each, according to the minimum to have representation – are in the air to add a majority of 61 deputies of the 120 of the Chamber. Nobody dares to predict the results.

VOTE IN PANDEMIC

124,829 more Israelis have the right to vote compared to the last ones, in March. A total of 6,578,084 citizens, many of whom had not been able to return due to the pandemic’s border restrictions, relaxed since Sunday, which is why four voting points have been enabled in the same Ben Gurion international airport.

Participation is key. Israel will invest more than 170 million euros to bring the polls closer to infected and quarantined citizens. They will be the most expensive elections in its history. 801 buses throughout Israel will also be enabled as voting centers to deal with unforeseen events such as the detection of a positive in an electoral college that forces it to close.

Public transportation will be free from this afternoon and throughout the electoral day on Tuesday, a holiday in the country to facilitate travel.

20,000 police officers will be deployed in specialized teams to ensure normal voting.

FOUR MEN FOR ONE DESTINATION

The favorite in the polls is still the Prime Minister’s Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu, with about 30 seats, who does not seem to have been affected by the corruption trial he faces. The Israelis will vote after weeks of a progressive economic reopening, with more than half of the population vaccinated, which has returned a sense of normalcy to the streets.

Israel’s normalization of relations agreements with four Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan (this one in the absence of the final agreement) – is another of the electoral strengths with which Netanyahu aspires to extend a mandate that has been consecutively renewed since 2009.

It is assured of its traditional ultra-Orthodox partners – Shah and United Torah Judaism – and the far-right Religious Zionist Party, with strong racist rhetoric, led by Bezalel Smotrich.

The main rival to dispute the head of Government to Netanyahu is the centrist Yair Lapid, of Yesh Atid, but with an estimate of between 16 and 19 seats, I would need to add the rest of the lists that are presented to unseat Netanyahu, like Guideón Saar, who left Likud to create Nueva Esperanza, which has a forecast of 9 seats.

The fourth candidate in vote intention is the ultra-nationalist Naftali Benet, from Yamina (about 9 seats), who said on Sunday that he will not support a government with Lapid, nor one with Netanyahu that requires the support of Arabic lists.

In short, there are several factors that will influence the fourth elections held Israel this Tuesday in less than two years.

“Only one thing is clear: it should not surprise us if in the end it surprises us a lot,” analyst Matti Tuchfeld summed up today in the official newspaper, Israel Hayom.