:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/VWZE3HS75K5RR3CTAGG5QND4KM.jpg "Inflation: they estimate that meat and prices already add at least another 2 points to the February index")
The inflation data does not give the economic team any respite. After learning of the 6% record in January, preliminary measurements show that prices continue to climb unabated during this month as well, calling into question an economic scenario characterized by a contraction in the level of activity.
Without seasonality: what the report says that contradicts the government’s argument on the rise in inflation in January
This is a new index measured by Di Tella University that replicates the methodology of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Basically, the indicator for the month of February is already overheating with at least 2 additional points, both due to the increase in food prices and public services, for which increases have already been announced.
In the food and beverage category, which recorded an increase above the general index in January, with 6.8%, the rise in meat prices will this time have its full effect. At a minimum, it will contribute 1 point to inflation, although, most likely, a few tenths more, some consultants risk.
One percentage point is what the CPI accumulates for every 10% increase in the average price of meat to consumers
It is that, according to the INDEC weighting, 1 percentage point is what the CPI accumulates for every 10% increase in the average price of meat for consumers, but the percentage increase in recent weeks may have been higher. In any event, this impact will come on top of a division-wide price movement that was already accelerating, which was demonstrated in official payrolls and which the government attributed to seasonal issues such as droughts or the jellies. None of these factors has improved, at least for the time being, in any marked way.
Inflation in January, around 6%, will leave a high floor for the first quarter
Today, higher than expected data will be released for the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the year. Tariffs, tourism, meat and gasoline fueled higher prices
For utilities, electricity rate increases of between 17% and 29% have been formalized, with adjustments that cover residential users, businesses and industries.
Between the two factors, this month’s inflation has already accumulated 2 additional points, which corrects upwards the inflation projections of a large part of the analysts participating in the Central Bank’s survey.
“Everything seems to indicate that the 6% inflation in January put an end to the process of disinflation in November, which had barely been maintained in December, and certain factors add to the pessimism for the immediate future,” Consultatio said in his last weekly report. .
Reimbursements for purchases in butcher shops: the government has regulated the procedure for accessing the allowance
The measure, published in the Official Journal, establishes the reimbursement of 10% of the amount, which cannot exceed the sum of $2,000 per service and per calendar month.
The client report points out that “much of the strong beef gains were concentrated in the last week of the month, with which the January data does not appear to have fully captured them (the inflation brake in February could go up to 1%), while there are regulated price increases that have already been announced (they would imply almost an additional 1% in February), in addition to the fact that import restrictions continue to deepen and that will surely end up affecting prices”.
Import restrictions continue to deepen and this will surely end up affecting prices (Consultatio)
Along the same lines, consultancy LCG warned that “for the third consecutive week”, in the second week of February, meat was the price that most affected the food product, with a contribution of 1.3 percentage points to the general index.
Other factors will also exert pressure on the inflation rate. For example, the impact of prepaid drug quotas is a separate chapter since the segmentation proposed for the position did not materialize and most affiliates will benefit from an increase of 8.21%, which will also contribute to that the index is at similar levels to last month. This is reflected, at least, in the Ecolatina measure, which between the first half of February recorded an increase of 6.1% compared to the first 15 days of last month.
“The GBA CPI posted 6.1% growth between the first half of February and the same period of January, knowing that the inflationary rebound in January would consolidate”, anticipated the consulting firm, which added data. worrisome: most in its measure was core inflation, with an increase of 7.3% in the first two weeks. Core inflation or CPI reflects, according to the Central Bank itself in a statement on which it based its decision to keep the interest rate unchanged, “the most trending behavior of the general price level”, in excluding regulated, seasonal and/or with a significant tax component.
The monthly acceleration in the rate of increase of the CPI is almost entirely explained by increases in seasonal categories (BCRA)
“The monthly acceleration in the CPI growth rate is almost entirely explained by increases in seasonal (mainly vegetables and tourism) and regulated (notably transport, gas and communication) categories, while core inflation, which reflects the trend in the behavior of the general price level, was at a level similar to that of December (5.4%, +0.1 pp),” the Central Bank said last Thursday.
On this basis, therefore, the acceleration of more than 2 points captured by the survey of various consultants indicates a weakening of the monetary authority’s argument to continue to maintain the key rate at 6.25% per month if it aims to maintain a more robust positive real rate cushion to avoid a higher exchange rate and inflationary pressures.
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