The ace stocks and bonds from Argentina operated this Monday with heavy lossesaffected by the global risk aversion born of doubts about the American banking system after the bankruptcy of the Bank of Silicon Valley (SVC).
Added to the bad mood outside was the waiting period imposed by investors who are waiting for the Monetary Fund International (IMF) announces new reserve targets for the southern country in the face of a long drought, which will allow it to receive a disbursement of some 5.2 billion dollars.
index S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange lost 4.7%, to 225,227 points, although measured in dollars “counted with settlement”, the loss widened to 5.2%. The dollar Merval plunged to 569.4 points, a low since Dec. 23.
Losses prevailed among ADRs and shares of Argentine companies that are traded in dollars in New York, led by YPF (-6.9%, to $9.91).
“To stop inflation, the United States and Argentina should pursue a policy of increasing reserve requirements, in order to reduce the banking multiplier. The increase in the interest rate does not produce results and we refer to what has happened in recent months. On the other hand, it would be essential for our country to reduce the budget deficit, which the government would not be willing to do, therefore, all roads lead us to a scenario of recession and inflation, we have already left behind us the scenario of stagnation with inflation.” , explained the economist and business adviser Salvador DiStefano.
“The collapse of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank has affected risk assets, of which Global (Argentina) (bonds) are a part,” the brokerage said. StoneX.
After plunging 4.8% on average on Friday, bonds Global -in dollars with foreign law- brought in an additional 1.3% on average on Wall Street, although they are improving from the 4% declines in the morning. He countries at risk measured by JP Morgan bank increased by 43 whole numbers for Argentina, to 2,323 dots basics at 6:30 p.m., after marking a peak of 2,444 units at noon, a maximum since November 13 last year.
“The Fed’s (US Federal Reserve) potential change of course in monetary policy could imply a slight rally in Argentinian bonds,” he said. Personal Portfolio Investments. “On the one hand, a lessening of the interest rate tightening could lead investors, in search of higher yields, to include riskier securities in their portfolios – of ‘high beta’ – such as Argentinian securities”, he pointed out.
The currency traded on the informal market ended this Monday offered at $377 for sale, with a gain of four pesos or 1.1% on the day. The “blue” dollar hit $380 at midday, a high since Jan. 31. So far in March, the free dollar has gained two pesos.
With the wholesale dollar rising by 1.13 pesos to $201.86, the the exchange difference remained at 86.8 percent.
Dollar prices through stock assets resumed their gains on Monday, given renewed financial fears over the possible solvency of some North American banks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Due to the collapse in the dollar price of Argentine debt, the “counted with liquidation” up to Global 2030 (GD30C) in ByMA hit a nominal record high of $400, while the MEP dollar calculated with the Bonar 2030 (AL30D) struck a deal at 383 pesos. These dollars closed at $393.20 and $379.81, respectively.
The BCRA ended the first session of the week with sales for $87 million to meet market needs, in a wholesale wheel with a turnover of 265 million dollars in the spot segment.
“This is the highest daily sale in March and the highest since last February 15,” he said. Gustave Quintana, operator of PR Exchange Brokers. The BCRA records in Net sales of $407 million in March at MULC.
“The BCRA continues to lose foreign exchange and the supply of the agro-industrial sector is reduced to a minimum. During the (last) week, the BCRA had to deal with sales of 282.5 million dollars”, recalls the consultant. EcoGo and pointed out that “furthermore, nervousness and an international situation were also not supports for financial exchange rates”.
“Given the impossibility of devaluing due to political -elections- and economic circumstances -inflation would accelerate from an already consolidated three-digit level-, all roads lead to a dramatic adjustment in imports”, estimated Portfolio Personal.
A source familiar with the negotiation with the IMF said Reuters on condition of anonymity that the new agreement with Argentina makes the question of the dollar more flexible, but remains hard on budgetary objectives.
2022 targets in the fourth quarter will be approved, allowing the disbursement of fresh funds, while the 2023 reserve targets are revised downwards in the face of a drop in exports, while the primary budget deficit remains concentrated at 1.9 % of GDP, he commented.
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