:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/EE5AYK6SBRCCLAZEILS3W7DINU.jpg "Coastal Child: ENFEN warns that a phenomenon is likely to occur in Peru due to high temperatures")
Six years after the plague of coastal child in Peru, it is increasingly likely that this will happen weather phenomenon this year due to high temperatures and heavy rains expected in North Coast From Peru.
Piura will be declared an emergency due to heavy rains six years after the plague of the coastal child
The announcement was made by the Ministry of Defense, chaired by Jorge Chávez, to take urgent preventive measures in the next 48 to 72 hours.
In this sense, the Multisectoral Commission for the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) changed the alert system status from ‘Not Active’ to “Coastal El Niño Watch”as there is a higher probability that the observed anomalous warming will continue between the rest of the summer and, for the time being, until mid-autumn 2023.
Likewise, the entity attached to the Institute of the Sea of Peru (Imarpe) explained that this alert change is due to recent changes in ocean-atmospheric conditions in the extreme eastern equatorial Pacific, which includes the northern and central Peruvian Sea, and the forecast of warm kelvin waves that would arrive between March and May.
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The definition of “Coastal El Niño Watch”according to models and observations, using expert criteria in a collegial manner, the FINALLY Committee estimate that he is Coastal El Niño is more likely to occur so that it doesn’t happen
Also EFEN indicated that sea surface temperatures in the Niño 1+2 region could reach values above 27°C and 26°C in March and April, respectively.
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In recent days, rains in the north of the country continue to cause flooding. 298 districts of the north coast and mountains are threatened. Senamhi expects more rainfall during the week.
“Associated with this warming, and according to the current seasonal rain forecast for March-May 2023, it is expected that, on the north and central coast, in addition to the mountains of the north and center-west of the country, there will be episodes of moderate to heavy rain especially in March,” the entity said.
In contrast, for the central Pacific region, most international models estimate a higher probability that neutral conditions will remain until May and that a transition to warm conditions. It should be noted that forecasts beyond the fall have high uncertainty due to the predictability barrier.
Besides, the EFEN Multisectoral Commission recommends that decision-makers take into account possible risk scenarios in accordance with current seasonal forecasts for prevention and disaster risk reduction purposes.
The entity will continue to monitor and report on changing ocean-atmospheric conditions and update the outlook. Given the current conditions, the FINALLY will issue its next official statement on March 16, 2023.
During this time the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (Senamhi) reported that the northern coast of Peru will experience moderate to heavy rains, accompanied by electric shocks. This weather event will take place during the second week of March.
There Senamhi Weather Forecast Branch pointed out that this phenomenon is mainly due to a favorable atmospheric configuration, an increase in sea surface temperature off the northern coast and a higher concentration of humidity during this period.
The bone accumulated rain higher will reach values above 70 mm/day in Piura, especially in the provinces of Sullana, Morropón and Piura. Meanwhile, in Tumbes, accumulations of more than 50mm/day are expected.
According to Senamhi Specialist, Diego Rodríguez, the panorama of the rains of the next few weeks begins with the coast, where they will be recorded more intensely on March 8 and 9, which would reach values of 70 millimeters in Piura, even more in the provinces of Piura Sullana and Morropon; while in Tumbes they would reach more than 50 milliliters in the highest areas.
On the side of the mountains, the specialist pointed out that there is a warning that occupies the entire mountain range that extends from March 3 to 5, where there will be moderate to high intensity especially in the middle and upper basin, expecting accumulations in the southern sierra of 25 millimeters, 23 millimeters in the central sierra and 30 in the northern sierra.
In the jungle during the period from March 3 to 5, there will be moderate to heavy rainfall intensity that they will concentrate on the edges of the jungle and that from March 5, this will be concentrated in the northern jungle and part of the central high jungle, being able to reach more than 60 millimeters in the northern jungle and more than 40 in the high central jungle.