Chinese weapons could revive Russia’s failed war

for decades, Russia supplied weapons to China. Between 2001 and 2010, it sent an average of 2,000 million dollars per year, with a windfall of 7,000 million in 2015. Now, the distribution has changed. Russia lost over 9,400 pieces of equipment, including over 1,500 tanks, during its clumsy invasion of Ukraine. You are desperately out of ammo. UNITED STATES claims to have information suggesting that China is considering the possibility of supplying weapons to Russia. It could change the course of the war. It would also trigger a deeper crisis in the relationship. China con UNITED STATES there Europe.

Russia asked for weapons China several times since the first months of the war. China he repeatedly refused, sending only non-lethal aid such as helmets and dual-use items such as aircraft parts. US authorities have not publicly released details of what they believe China plot But on February 23, the German magazine The mirror claimed that the Russian armed forces were negotiating with the Chinese company Xi’an Bingo Smart Aviation Technology the purchase of 100 attack drones. Russia has used this type of drone both on the front line and, since October, in regular attacks on the power grid of Ukraine.

One day after the report The mirror, The Washington Post quoted US officials as saying that China he envisioned the shipment of howitzers, the deadliest weapons of war. Such Russia as Ukraine they use 122mm and 152mm Soviet caliber shells in their artillery pieces and have scoured the world for old stockpiles. But Russia he lacks friends to ask. Emptied the warehouses of belarus. North Korea you’ve provided a few, but you don’t want to miss your arsenal. AND Iran has little to give.

China It has compatible projectiles. According Lonnie Henleyformer member of Pentagon Defense Intelligence Agency, little is known about the size and quality of its reserves. But they would certainly be enough to avert the impending missile crisis. Russia. This would make all the difference in a conflict where attrition is critical and the relative rate of shellfire has sometimes been decisive. Defense industries on both sides have struggled to increase production.

China He has the weight to tip the scales. It is the world’s fourth largest arms exporter. Eight of its companies are included in the latest ranking of the 100 largest arms companies in the world, compiled by the International Institute of stockholm for the peace researchand seven of them are in the top 20, only surpassed by UNITED STATES. In recent years, sales of large Chinese enterprises have increased sharply.

War could also offer China the opportunity to readjust and rebalance its defense relationship with Russia. For many years he imported Russian military technology, turning much of it into imitation equipment. Between 2017 and 2021, 81% of its defense imports came from Russiaincluding the engines of the latest Chinese stealth fighters.

Now you have the opportunity to become “a relatively equal industrial partner for the Russian defense industry“, states quick michaelSince S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies of Singapore. Instead of just sending basic material, China could help Russia circumvent Western sanctions by sending high-tech components for drones, cruise missiles and other precision weapons. Mess suggests that Chinain return, might want the technology for the RD-180, a Russian rocket engine used for space launches (and potentially ballistic missiles). Underwater technology and jet engines would also be appealing.

However, Chinese leaders are divided. They don’t want to see Russia humiliated on the battlefield, especially at the hands of American rocket launchers and European tanks. A few weeks before the invasion, Russia there China celebrated his Friendship without limits. Maybe some in beijing may also like the idea of ​​diverting American energies to Europe and far from Indo-Pacific.

But there are reasons for moderation. China she is mad at him Kremlin because UNITED STATES echoed discussions of arms sales and made them public, according to a European official familiar with the matter. China he wanted all support to remain secret. You know that supporting the campaign of Russia would demolish its claim to be a neutral mediator: the allies of Ukraine They rejected the unilateral Chinese peace initiative released on February 24. It would also further poison the relationship with UNITED STATES and provoke a violent reaction in Europe. Linda Thomas Greenfieldsent from UNITED STATES before HIMthere Joseph Borrellhead of foreign policy EUwarned that lethal aid would cross a “Red line”.

For now, China err on the side of caution. Borrell I affirm that Wang Yithe head of Chinese diplomacy, had told him during a meeting held on February 18 that China “will not supply weapons to Russia”. Of course, Wang also stated that China he did not send arms to countries at war, which he usually does. But on February 24, the president Joe Biden expressed confidence that Wang was sincere at least in the first part. “I do not foresee a major initiative by China to supply arms to Russia“, said Biden. If the position of Russia on the battlefield seems hopeless in spring or summer – when Ukraine hopes to launch an offensive – such indulgence will come under intense pressure.

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