Brazilians will go to the polls today for the first round of Brazil’s most polarized elections in a long time, in which left-wing former president Lula da Silva (2003-2010) faces incumbent right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula has the best papers.
Lula has been leading the polls for months, but Bolsonaro has already indicated that he will not accept the results of the elections if he loses them. This only fuels the possibility of an institutional crisis and electoral violence.
Former President Lula – who will be imprisoned for hundreds of days in 2018 and 2019 over a corruption case – has a lead of about 15 percentage points. If he wins with more than 50 percent of the valid votes, something that some polling agencies believe is possible, he could take the presidency in one round.
Round 2
However, if none of the candidates manage to obtain a majority of the votes in the first round, another vote will be held on October 30. That ballot will then contain the names of the top two of the first election, further extending the tense election period.
Bolsonaro has threatened to protest the result of the vote after repeatedly stating that the system was full of fraud. He also felt that the electoral authorities were plotting against him, suggesting that the military should do a shadow count. The military refused. “I only respect the result if the voting is transparent,” he said.
Tumultuous Transition
Should Lula take the profit today, the chance of a tumultuous transition is much smaller. Experts say Bolsonaro’s verbal attacks on the democratic process could spark further social unrest, such as the 2021 Capitol storming by supporters of former President Donald Trump.
In addition to the presidential elections, votes are also taken for a new House of Commons, one-third of the Senate and state governors. And while Lula is the frontrunner in the presidential race, it looks like a conservative coalition – which supports Bolsonaro – will retain the majority in both the upper and lower houses.