:quality(85)//cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/infobae/E6I6GBZASX5LCWRIF3X5FWGGPQ.jpg "BBVA Research: March inflation will be relatively high, but will show a marked decline")
Even though the rate of Annual inflation of the metropolis of Lima fell slightly in February, the BBVA research expects monthly inflation for March to be relatively high.
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However, the bank expects the Annual inflation It will show a marked decline due to a high base of comparison (in March of last year, inflation was 1.5%) and could end up at levels close to 8.0%.
“There monthly inflation for march It will be relatively high due to seasonal factors (in the third month of the year there are the main adjustments in the prices of education services and due to the temporary reduction in the supply of certain foods in Lima in because of the rains in the mountains which generate landslides)”, explained the Hugo Vega, BBVA research analyst.
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Similarly, the economist anticipates that in the second quarter the downward trend in the Annual inflation will be accentuated In this context (start of a sharp decline in inflation), and assuming that inflationary expectations stabilize, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) Peru would keep the benchmark rate at 7.75% at its next meeting on March 9.
He Metropolitan Lima Consumer Price Index (CPI) it rose by 0.29% in February 2023, below what was expected by the consensus of analysts (Bloomberg: 0.44%).
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The employment rate for boys, girls and adolescents (NNA), aged 5 to 17, who work in Peru was 25.3%, according to the INEI.
The inflation observed in the second month of the year is mainly explained by the price increase of certain foods (chicken and beef, as well as fruit) and due to the seasonal increase in the prices of education services (back-to-school adjustment).
It should be noted that the monthly rise in prices was offset by lower prices for housing, water, gas and other fuels, as well as lower residential electric rates.
With the result of the month, the year-on-year inflation rate fell slightly to 8.65% in February (January: 8.66%; still close to the peak reached in June last year (8.8%).
“The new upward pressures observed in recent months on the prices of certain foods largely explain the downward resistance,” he commented. Yalina Crispin, analyst at BBVA Research.
On the other hand, the Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices), a more trending measure of the pace of price growth, stood at 0.27% in February (January: 0.05%).
In interannual terms, this inflation indicator registered a level of 5.87%, accelerating for the second consecutive month (5.59%) in December last year and 5.80% in January), thus remaining above BCR target range, and, for the moment, with no sign of reversal.
According to National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), rising prices in Metropolitan Lima During the second month of my present year, it is mainly influenced by the mayors’ prizes of eviscerated polling, items of gallina and menú in restaurants, and also the increment of prizes in matrícula escolar no estatal y gasohol, que en conjunto aportaron con 0.327 porcentuales points al resultado of the month; mitigated by lower electricity tariffs and certain foods such as yellow and white potatoes, bonito and strong avocado.
In February 2023, out of the 586 products that make up the family basket 385 price increases were recorded, 103 decreased and 98 showed no change.
The reported products the biggest price increases were: strawberry (15.70%), out-of-school tuition (15.14%), leek (12.20%), mango (11.32%), beetroot (10.80%), gutted chicken ( 10.78%), green bean (8.35%) and dry potato (8.13%). Meanwhile, the products with lower prices were: yellow potato (-21.11%), huayro potato (-20.19%), bonito (-14.20%), white potato (-10.76%), strong avocado (-9.34%), blueberries (-9.07%), white grapes (-8.73%) and hake (-8.63 %).