The evaluation of statistical data to adapt the way of playing has already changed some sports in the long term. A coach starts with his team and is successful, then the rest of the league recognizes the value of the new strategy and follows suit. In basketball, this is the three-point throw.
The NBA introduced the three-point line more than 40 years ago. But only in the last decade has the number of three-pointers per match changed the game forever. How does this affect sports and basketball sports betting?
The history of three-pointers in the NBA
The NBA first introduced the three-point line for the 1979-80 season. The year-long trial resulted in a permanent rule change. On October 12, 1979, player Chris Ford sunk the first official three-pointer in the NBA for the Boston Celtics.
At the time the three-point line was introduced, no player could consistently convert three-pointers. It wasn’t until the 1990s that players took more than ten three-point shots per game. A low figure compared to around 80 shots per game at the time.
The three-point line
The three-point line is an arc of a circle around the center of the basket. At the points where the arc approaches the sidelines on the right and left, it is flattened so that the three-point line maintains a minimum distance from the sidelines. Each shot outside the line scores three points for the corresponding team.
However, the distance between the three-point line varies depending on the league. The NBA provides the largest distance at 7.24 meters. Internationally, as well as in college basketball and the women’s NBA, the smaller distance of 6.75 meters applies. In US high school basketball, the distance is just 20 feet.
Distance to basket:
- NBA: 7.24m
- WNBA, FIBA, NCAA, NAIA: 6.75m
- NFHS: 6.02 m
Improvement in throwing accuracy since inception
In the early 1980s, NBA teams attempted just two three-pointers per game, and it wasn’t until the 1990s that the number rose to ten per game for the first time. From 1995 to 1997, the NBA moved the three-point line closer to the basket to make the game more interesting, but the league later reversed the rule.
By the turn of the millennium, teams had seen an average increase of ten percentage points in converted three-pointers. In the 1980s, only around a quarter of long-distance throws ended up in the basket, but since the 2000s to date it has been 35 percent and more.
How three-pointers changed the game in the NBA
Most NBA teams now throw more than half of all shots per game from outside the three-point line. The value of around a third of converted three-point shots is decisive. An analysis of the throwing positions shows: There is no longer an attempt from the middle distance. Play is concentrated under the net, where players score layups and dunks, and outside the three-point line. There are almost no more shots from outside the penalty area, but within the three-point line.
The 2018-19 season is seen as a big change. In the playoffs of the season, the Houston Rockets became the first team to make more three-pointers than two-pointers, at 51 percent. There is a simple calculation behind this: If a team converts a third of all three-pointer throws, the score is the same as when converting half of all two-pointer throws.
Coach Daryl Morey is credited with this realization. In 2014, he instructed the Rio Grande Valley Vipers team to refrain from throwing from middle distance and instead dare more three-pointer throws. At the time, NBA teams were attempting an average of 22.5 three-pointers per match. The Vipers almost doubled the value. The strategy worked and the entire NBA league soon followed suit.
The change of space in basketball through three-point shots
If a team has successful shooters for three-pointers, it makes the crowd. Conversely, teams with players who are less accurate at three-pointers have trouble staying competitive in the NBA. The number of points per throw depending on the player’s position can be calculated using the statistics.
On average, the players score just over one point directly under the basket, as well as with three-point shots. The middle-distance shots, on the other hand, yield less than a point per shot, which is why teams avoid these attempts.
A high number of three-pointers per game also has other positive effects for the teams:
- Shorter attacks and more offensive style of play possible.
- Less ball loss by picking up or blocking opponents when gaining space, passing or two-point shots.
- Avoiding possible attacker fouls when penetrating into the opponent’s penalty area.
With shorter attacks, you can play more attacks overall and make more shots. The total number of points per match tends to increase, due to the higher number and the higher point yield. Since the 2018-19 season, the points per match are more than 100.
Another trend is related to space change in NBA basketball. With increasing throwing accuracy, players increase their distance from the three-point line and throw less and less directly in front of the line. Stephen Curry is the first player in NBA history to make at least eight three-pointers in three straight games.
Accurate players like Stephen Curry, considered the NBA’s best three-pointer, can convert a three-pointer shot from the middle of the court. Such a daring throw would have had consequences from the coach a decade ago – today the fans are cheering.
What do three-point shots mean for basketball sports betting?
Of course, betting providers have also noticed the increase in the number of three-pointers in the NBA. The appropriate response is to correct upwards for the number of three-pointers themselves, but more importantly for the total points per game or team. In the case of line bets, there is even a tendency towards an overcorrection. This means: The bookmakers set very high values with corresponding odds for over-under bets.
There is simple psychology behind it. Basketball is known among bettors as a high-scoring game. Basketball sports betting fans also prefer to bet above the line rather than below it in terms of total points per team, per half or per match.
However, bettors should pay close attention to how often the sub-bet wins in a season or for a team. Values of more than 50% tend to result here, which make the sub-bet clearly more lucrative.
This betting strategy can be even more successful outside of the NBA, for example in college basketball or in the basketball league. Here the smaller distance of the three-point line is to be considered, but also the quota of the three-point throws.
Basically, the number of throws and points at distance has increased in all leagues. The NBA is still ahead as an extreme case. The effect of overcorrection by betting providers can nevertheless occur in other leagues to the same extent as in the NBA.
This does not mean that the bookmakers are fundamentally wrong in their predictions or overly optimistic about the total number of points. However, bettors should not lose sight of the fact that the sub-bet can be a more lucrative option.