The delays in vaccinations, the fatigue of many societies in the face of restrictions and the most contagious variants of the coronavirus have led the world to a fourth wave of COVID-19, with figures that already resemble the third at the end of 2020, so far the worst in infections and deaths.

DAILY CONTAGES AND DEATHS ON THE RISE

According to figures from the World Health Organization (WHO), global cases today exceed 127 million, while deaths are close to 2.8 million, and both infections and weekly deaths continue to rise after the hopeful decline of the curve that existed from the beginning of 2021 until the middle of February.

“We have six consecutive weeks of increased transmission in all regions, it is a worrying and serious trend. After two years of the pandemic, there is a lot of fatigue and societies want the pandemic to end, but we are not going in the right direction,” said the head of the WHO anticovid unit, Maria Van Kerkhove.

Global daily infections already exceed 600,000 in some days, approaching the record figures of the beginning of the year, when they exceeded 800,000, while daily deaths on some days exceed the 10,000 barrier.

The only positive trend shown by the curves is that despite the rise in cases in the last month and a half, the death toll remains fairly stable, which could be due to the effects that vaccinations are already having on vulnerable populations.

YOUNGER AND YOUNG PEOPLE IN ICU

However, WHO experts warn that, as happened in mid-2020, a decrease in the average age of the most serious cases is again being noticed, and the number of people between 30 and 60 years old who require emergency interventions is increasing .

“It is frustrating that this happens because we have already experienced this situation, our guard has been lowered with good weather and we cannot do it at a time when the distribution of vaccines is still uneven,” said Van Kerkhove in his weekly meeting with Internet users in social networks.

The fourth wave does not yet reach the figures of daily infections of the third, between October and January, but it does exceed those of the first (March and April 2020, although at that time many cases could not be tested) and the second, of the middle of last year, when COVID-19 especially hit the American continent.

However, in this wave the distribution of cases is very uneven, perhaps due to seasonal factors and vaccinations: while in America the figures are relatively low, the Middle East or East Asia already suffer record numbers of new infections.

And while the country hardest hit by the pandemic, the US (30 million positives) has managed to reduce daily cases, these are rising rapidly in Brazil and India, with 12 million cases each.

UNEQUAL SITUATION IN EUROPE

In Europe the figures differ enormously: while the curve remains relatively stable in countries that have suffered hard previous waves, such as Spain or the United Kingdom, it rises in Germany, Italy or France, whose governments have ordered an increase in restrictions.

The negative trends also coincide with the arrival of the Easter holidays, which makes us fear an even greater increase in cases due to vacation outings and family reunions, as happened last Christmas.

“We all know what to do to prevent infections and save lives, so we must continue to do so, do everything possible on our part to lower the figures,” warned Van Kerkhove before the arrival of the holidays.

By 2021, at least, there are already vaccines against COVID-19, so the pandemic has become a race against time to immunize billions of people as quickly as possible, before new vaccine-resistant mutations emerge. .

For now, about 600 million doses have been injected into the planet (experts estimate that it will take about 10,000 to achieve global group immunity), of which 150 million have been administered in the US, 120 million in China and 73 million in the European Union.

At a relative level, the most advanced countries in vaccination are Israel, where 60% of its population has received at least one dose, followed by the United Kingdom (45%) and Chile (35%).

CHILE, A NOTICE TO THE WORLD

The WHO warns that vaccination should not replace the preventive measures in force since last year, such as physical distancing, hand hygiene or avoiding crowded places.

Nations where vaccination is going at a good pace but where cases have increased rapidly in recent weeks, such as India or Chile, are painful proof of this.

“There are countries like Chile that are vaccinating well but infections and hospitalizations have risen, which has left the government no choice but to confine it again,” recalled the executive director of the WHO for Health Emergencies, Mike Ryan.

“March and April last year were very tough months, we are back in that period and we must once again be exceptionally alert,” concluded the Irish expert.

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