Despite having promised to punish top Saudi leaders during the election campaign, President Joe Biden refused to apply sanctions to who the American intelligence community determined is responsible for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman .
The decision not to punish Prince Mohammed directly highlights the kind of decision making that is more difficult for a president than for a candidate. It also demonstrates the difficulty of breaking with a troublesome ally in a volatile region.
On Friday, the Biden administration released a declassified intelligence report on Khashoggi’s death, an action his predecessor refused to take while downplaying US intelligence. The report from the director of national intelligence says that the crown prince, known as MBS, directly approved of Khashoggi’s assassination. But while Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced visa restrictions affecting 76 Saudis implicated in the harassment of activists and journalists, he did not announce measures affecting the prince. And while a Treasury Department sanctions list named a former deputy intelligence chief and the Royal Guard’s rapid intervention force saluted, the crown prince did not mention him.
US: Khashoggi assassination approved by Saudi prince 3:33Two administration officials said that sanctioning MBS was never really an option, believing it would have been “too complicated” and could have jeopardized US military interests in Saudi Arabia. As a result, the administration did not even ask the State Department to generate options on how to target MBS with sanctions, a State Department official said.
When asked in an interview with Univision about how much he is willing to pressure the crown prince to respect human rights, Biden said he was now dealing with the Saudi king and not with bin Salman. He stated that “the rules are changing” and that there could be significant changes on Monday.
“We are going to hold them to account for human rights abuses and we are going to make sure that in fact, you know, if they want to deal with us, they have to handle it in a way that addresses human rights abuses,” he said. Biden, without being more specific about any plans to punish the crown prince.
What had Biden previously said about Saudi Arabia?
It was a very different comment from one in November 2019, when Biden promised to punish senior Saudi leaders in a way that former President Donald Trump would not.
“Yes,” he said when asked directly if he would. «And I said it at the time. Khashoggi was, in fact, killed and dismembered, and I believe by order of the crown prince. And it would make it very clear that, in fact, we were not going to sell more weapons to them, in fact, we were going to make them pay the price and make them the pariah that they are, ”he said.
“There is very little redemptive social value in the current government of Saudi Arabia,” he added. “They have to be held accountable.”
Biden’s definition of management responsibility becomes clearer. The president has ended US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen. He also ordered an end to some arms sales to the kingdom, while top advisers say he wants to “recalibrate” the relationship.
White House communications director Kate Bedingfield told Citizen Free Press’s Erin Burnett on “OutFront” that Biden had told King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud during his call Thursday that the United States will not tolerate the prince’s behavior. heir, despite the lack of action.
Biden “has made it clear to them, and our administration has made it clear at all times, that this … this is not going to be tolerated,” Bedingfield said.
This will not be tolerated. And we have taken action today. The Treasury and the (Department of) State have taken measures today to sanction people, sanction networks, who were involved in this horrible murder, “he added.
Administration officials acknowledge that recalibrating the relationship is going to be tricky. In an exclusive interview with NPR that aired Friday afternoon, National Intelligence Director Avril Haines admitted that the report could complicate relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia in the future.
“I’m sure it’s not going to make things easier,” she said. “But I think it is also fair to say that it is not unexpected,” he added.
A senior administration official said, explaining the decision not to punish the crown prince in light of the report, that the information released on Friday was not new and had been known to the United States government for more than a year. .
In response to the report, the Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry said that it “completely rejects the negative, false and unacceptable assessment of the report on the Kingdom’s leadership.”
Officials privately acknowledge that Saudi Arabia is a critical partner
The relationship with Riyadh itself seems too valuable for the Biden administration to completely abandon it by punishing the man who is seen as running the kingdom. State Department officials said the Biden administration was careful not to upset any working discussions between the two countries because the security relationship is very important.
In many ways, that calculation is the same the Trump administration made when deciding not to punish MBS.
Officials from the Trump and Biden administrations have privately acknowledged that Saudi Arabia is a critical partner in counterterrorism efforts and as a regional counterweight to Iran. This makes any attempt at distancing almost impossible.
“It’s hard to imagine any issue in the region where Saudi association and support don’t play a significant role,” Dennis Ross, former Middle East special coordinator, told Citizen Free Press.
Gerald Feierstein, a former senior deputy assistant secretary of state for Middle East Affairs, who now works at the Middle East Institute, said the administration is balancing its response with its other priorities, such as ending the conflict in Yemen. Declining tensions in the Gulf region and counter-terrorism efforts are also factors, all requiring a stable bilateral relationship between the United States and Arabia.
Most importantly, since “negotiations between the United States and Iran are likely to resume later this year, Biden will need acquiescence, if not enthusiasm, to sell an eventual deal in the region,” Ayham Kamel said, Director of Middle East and North Africa Internships for the Eurasia Group.
The crown prince’s drive
Another factor analysts point to: The crown prince serves to further some of the US’s goals, including its attempt to modernize and overhaul the Saudi economy.
“Although the crown prince comes with a serious baggage, his reforms are productive channels to modernize the kingdom, limit the influence of the establishment Wahhabi clergy, promoting a greater degree of religious tolerance and empowering youth, ”Kamel said.
“We are interested in seeing you make your modernization drive a success, we are interested in your transition from fossil fuels,” said Ross.
Kamel said that “the Biden team does not seek to deepen the direct political influence of the United States in Saudi Arabia and have an impact on the debate over the succession in the house of Al Saud,” and that the Saudis are willing to listen to some extent. .
“The Saudi leadership has firmly decided to take a constructive short-term position to limit tensions with the United States,” Kamel said. He marked the release of human rights activists as “an olive branch.”
And while Saudi officials understand that Biden is under pressure in Washington to act, “they are not convinced that Riyadh lacks influence,” Kamel said, referring to the security relations they have developed with countries like France and Russia. And also its ability to take advantage of ties with China to counter the United States.