North Korea could possess more than 240 atomic bombs by 2027, study finds

A study published today estimates that North Korea it could possess more than 240 nuclear weapons by 2027 and makes a controversial recommendation: to redeploy atomic weapons in South Korea.

“Until 2019 it is estimated that North Korea It has acquired 30-60 kilos of plutonium and between 175 kilos (minimum) and 645 kilos (maximum) of enriched uranium”, explains the report, published jointly by the Asan Institute and the Rand Corporation, two think tanks founded by large business groups.

Based on these numbers, “it is estimated that the total number of nuclear weapons in North Korea by 2027 would be between 151 and 242”, to which should be added “dozens of mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM)”, according to the text.

In that situation, the report argues that North Korea will act in an increasingly threatening way towards the South and that “to avoid a nuclear war” the alliance between Seoul and Washington must “emphasize strategic clarity rather than strategic ambiguity” in which it currently incurs, always in the opinion of the authors.

The analysis considers that the US and South Korea should send a message that clearly indicates to the North Korean regime that the use of nuclear weapons will entail “an immediate nuclear counterattack” by Washington and “will surely lead to their disappearance”.

For this reason, the study says, options such as deploying US assets such as tactical (short-range) nuclear weapons in South Korea and intermediate-range ballistic missiles “must be seriously considered.”

The US says it withdrew all its tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991 – when North Korea did not yet possess atomic weapons – to avoid a further escalation of tension on the peninsula, and the possibility of redeploying them is an issue. controversial that divides South Koreans.

Last January, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un He warned that he would start testing new weapons of mass destruction if the US did not propose new formulas to return to the talks on disarmament and relaxation of sanctions, stalled since 2019.

The new US government is currently reviewing what will be its new strategy to deal with Pyongyang, which at the end of March carried out two missile tests with the apparent intention of increasing pressure on Washington.