Buenos Aires is among the 50 cities that will suffer the most material damage from the climate crisis

“It’s the economy, silly,” was one of the most-used phrases during the presidential campaign that brought Bill Clinton to the presidency of the United States. UNITED STATES. Ultimately, it is the productive engine and economic well-being or discomfort that ultimately decides the political future of democratic states. A new study in regards to risks In infrastructure which generates the climate crisis shows that most of the “locomotives” of the Mondial economy could be in hazard before 2050. The ranking includes City of Buenos Aires and place it in the rank 40. The damage would be caused by the effects of the floods.

“The powerhouses of the global economy are among the states and provinces most at risk from climate change and extreme weather events,” according to a new physical climate risk ranking of all states, provinces and territories around the world released today. today by XDI (the Cross Dependency Initiative)world leader in physical climate risk analysis.

The physical risk classification for the built environment is derived from eight threats of climate change: river and surface flooding, coastal flooding, extreme heat, forest fires, land use (drought-related), extreme winds and melting ice.

The system uses global climate models, combined with local weather and environmental data and engineering archetypes, to calculate likely damage to the built environment, based on the scenario, with an average global warming of more than 3 ºC above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century.

The results show that the globally significant states and provinces of China and the United States will be the hardest hit, along with major cities and centers of economic activity around the world. “We are releasing this analysis in response to investor demand for sub-sovereign and regional risk data,” said Rohan Hamden, CEO of XDI.

“This is the first time that a physical climate risk analysis has focused exclusively on the built environment, comparing every state, province and territory around the world. Given that the construction of major infrastructure often coincides with high levels of economic activity and capital value, it is imperative that the physical risk of climate change is properly understood and assessed,” he added.

The ranking published in the media focuses on a comparison of the likely total amount of physical damage to buildings – called aggregate damage – in each state, province and territory in 2050. The comparison of physical climate risks of 2050 by XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk revealed the following:

-Two of China’s largest subnational economies – Jiangsu and Shandong – top the global rankings, in first and second place. More than half of the top 50 provinces in the world are in China.

– After China, the United States has the most high-risk states, with 18 in the top 100. Florida is the highest-ranked US state, followed by California and Texas.

– Together, China, India and the United States account for more than half of the states and provinces in the top 100.

-Other economic centers of great development and global importance that are among the top 100 are Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Jakarta, Beijing, Hồ Chí Minh City, Taiwan and Bombay.

There City of Buenos Aires It appears in position 40, among the 100 most affected cities. The greatest threat, according to this study, is the floods. “As extreme weather conditions become more frequent, Buenos Aires faces risks that threaten vulnerable populations in the city, such as heat waves, river flooding, coastal flooding and vector-borne diseases,” said warned the report that was carried out in 2018.

“Floods are a serious concern. Buenos Aires is bordered by two rivers, the Río de la Plata to the east and the Río Matanza-Riachuelo to the south. The city is also crossed by 11 river basins. Additionally, rainfall has increased by 32% since 1960, increasing the threat of flooding. To make matters worse, a local weather phenomenon known as Sudestada brings heavy rain, high seas and coastal flooding between July and October. And while the city cannot stop the wind from blowing, it can take steps to mitigate the risk to citizens,” the analysis adds.

Last year, a simulation study carried out by central climate, in which you can see which areas would be most affected by flooding in CABA and coastal areas, with a scenario of an average temperature increase of 4°C. It can be assumed, as the report argues, that these floods will cause significant and costly property damage.

Other cities in the country also appear in the analysis, such as: Santa Fein position 115; Cordobaat 145; chacoat 193; Santiago del Esteroat 236; currentsin 427; Between riversin 434; Formosain 493; Tucumanin 522 and Salta in 544.

The financial cost of extreme weather and climate change is already being felt in many economies that top the XDI gross domestic climate risk rankings. In June 2022, extreme flooding in Guangdong, ranked fourth in the analysis, caused direct economic losses estimated at 7.5 billion yuan (over $1 billion).

Hurricane Ian, which hit densely populated areas of Florida in late September 2022, caused insured losses estimated at $67 billion. Forecasts suggest that extreme weather events in areas like these will intensify in the coming years. Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong, is considered “the most economically vulnerable city in the world” to sea level rise by 2050.

“The results of the XDI Raw National Weather Risk Score underscore the importance of assessing physical weather risk in financial markets, including bond markets, given the amount of capital investment represented by risky assets in provinces identified, the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need for climate resilience to inform investments,” Hamden said.

“It is crucial that businesses, governments and investors understand the financial and economic implications of physical climate risk and weigh this risk in their decision-making before these costs skyrocket beyond financial tipping points,” he added.

After China, the United States has the most high-risk states in the world in 2050, with 18 in the top 100 and 28 in the top 200. Three U.S. states are in the top 20: Florida (10th ), California (19th) and Texas (20th).

Sea level rise is a threat to many states. According to the United States’ Fourth National Climate Assessment, rates of sea level rise along the Mid-Atlantic Coast were three to four times the global average rate. In the Midwest, the states most at risk from floods and fires are those with increasing risk.

Since 1980, the United States has experienced 332 weather and climate variability-related disasters in which total damages have reached or exceeded $1 billion, and the frequency of these events has increased in recent years. Over the past five years, there have been an average of 17.8 such events per year, compared to an annual average of 7.9 events between 1980 and 2022.

Continue reading: