OPEC is expected to maintain unchanged in its next main report its view that global oil demand will continue to rise for longer than many other forecasters forecast, despite the growing role of renewables and electric cars. said two OPEC sources.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to update its long-term oil demand forecasts in its report called World Oil Outlook 2022 to be released on October 31. The 2021 version forecasts a stagnation in oil demand from 2035.
Another decade or more of oil demand growth would provide a boost for producers and OPEC, whose 13 members depend on oil revenues, and highlight the need to continue investing in new oil supplies. Consumers and governments urging curbs on oil use to combat climate change would be less pleased.
OPEC took a turn in 2020, when the pandemic disrupted demand, saying it would eventually level off, after forecasting years of steadily rising demand. The latest update is likely to keep OPEC among the most bullish forecasts on oil demand.
“It’s similar to last year in terms of demand prospects,” said one of the OPEC sources.
Other forecasts consider that the demand for oil will reach its peak sooner. TotalEngergies, for example, forecasts that this will happen before 2030.
The International Energy Agency said Thursday that demand for all fossil fuels will reach a peak or plateau for the first time in the agency’s history, with oil demand stabilizing by the middle of the next decade.
OPEC headquarters in Vienna declined to answer questions ahead of Monday’s launch of the publication in Abu Dhabi, which will be attended by OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais and other OPEC officials.
Another OPEC source said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which has sent oil and gas prices skyrocketing and sparked an energy crisis – could boost short-term oil demand due to fuel switching, as well as than the current recovery from the pandemic.
“Oil and gas are expected to remain the dominant fuels in the global energy mix until mid-century,” the source said.